Bitcoin (BTC) starts another week in a precarious position near $20,000 before a fresh macro shakeout.
After confirming its best weekly gain since March, the largest cryptocurrency is struggling to maintain its recently recovered levels.
Key resistance zones remain above, and with inflation data due later in the week, the coming days could be edgy for risk assets everywhere.
At the same time, crypto market sentiment is showing signs of recovery and on-chain indicators continue to highlight what the latest macro price of Bitcoin is.
With conflicting data everywhere, Cointelegraph takes a deeper look at potential market drivers for the week ahead.
The 200-week moving average is causing headaches
At around $20,850, the June 10 weekly close was hardly anything special for BTC/USD, but the pair still managed its best seven-day gain in months.
Bitcoin ended Sunday at a full $1,600 higher than its position earlier in the week, sealing a rally not seen since March.
The success didn’t last long, as the weekly after hours turned negative. At the time of writing, BTC/USD was targeting $20,400 Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed.
Bitcoin’s ability to hold current levels could be key to determining sentiment this summer, as a dip in global equities will allow the cryptocurrency to erase some of its losses in recent months.
Commentators, including trading set Decentrader, looked at the weekly chart with interest.
Weekly review $BTC futures. The current candle is poised to close in a bullish band above the Moonraker and the weekly vwap. Momentum is also rising. If stocks continue to rise and have a summer rally $BTC and cryptocurrency is likely to follow. https://t.co/tlkrnTsG33
– Decentrader (@decentrader) July 10, 2022
Others were less enthusiastic, noting that BTC/USD still made another close below its key 200-week moving average (WMA) at $22,500.
In previous bear markets, the 200 WMA served as a common support level, which Bitcoin briefly broke below to place macro bottoms. But this time it looks different because $22,500 has not been on the chart for a month.
#BTC the weekly candle is up +15% but is still holding resistance below the 200MA for 3 weeks.
The lower time frames are slightly more bullish, with indicators cooling, but markets remain fearful.
the will #Bitcoin bounce back above the weekly 200MA before the weekly close? pic.twitter.com/NZXbxK8Oi2
– Steve Courtney ~ Crypto Crew University (@CryptoCrewU) July 8, 2022
Meanwhile, popular trader TechDev advocated a more optimistic outlook for the rest of 2022.
By the end of the year, he argued over the weekend, a retracement of more important WMAs should result in Bitcoin ending its “regroup phase” entirely.
“BTC fall to 32-35K likely confirms end of rally and correction this year +” TechDev he said Twitter followers.
“It is likely that both the 100W and 50W EMAs will occur once they are in this range. Currently 100W at 34.8K and 50W at 37.2K. “
Elsewhere, liquidation of assets continued Added to selling pressure from troubled cryptocurrency platform Celsius.
Celsius continues to send its remaining cryptocurrencies to exchanges. A few hours ago 2000 wBTC was transferred from the main wallet and after a series of hops it finally hit Coinbase and Binance.
Other major assets:
410k stETH ($479mm)
16k wBTC ($342mm) pic.twitter.com/ae6viYL1Jk– light (@lightcrypto) July 10, 2022
The relentless dollar is making a comeback as Asian markets tumble
Asian stocks fell on July 11 as the start of the macro week was clouded by news social unrest in China.
Markets felt the tension as protesters demanded the release of frozen funds amid a scandal involving both bank officials and local authorities accused of misusing COVID-19 tracking software.
At the time of writing, the Shanghai Composite Index was down 1.5%, while the Hong Kong Hang Seng was down 3.1%.
Europe fared slightly better with modest gains for the FTSE 100 and Germany’s DAX, while the US is still set to open.
Ahead of Wall Street’s comeback, the US dollar index (DXY) has already made fresh moves, reversing a pullback that provided a cooler end to last week.
On July 11, the DXY was at 107.4, just 0.4 points off the twenty-year high seen days earlier.
An analyst at trading firm The Rock, who analyzes the situation, described DXY as “almost extreme” in terms of year-over-year growth.
“Based on the extreme rally so far this year, the DXY is now up 16% year-to-date,” he said. he wrote.
“This is as extreme as it has historically been, and unfortunately it usually coincides with major financial stress in the markets, a recession, or both.”
Bitcoin made it dollars its traditional inverse correlation with the DXY last week is rising in tandem with the index.
Inflation will give a “mixed week”.
If that wasn’t enough, the age-old theme of inflation is poised to provide another test of market resilience this week.
US Consumer Price Index (CPI) has read July 13 is scheduled for June, and expectations are that the monthly figure will be higher year-on-year.
The higher inflation is, and the further it deviates from already high expectations, the more risky assets tend to react in anticipation of policymakers’ reaction.
For macro analyst Alex Krueger, the likely trajectory for this week is clear.
“It’s going to be messy,” he summed up on Twitter.
This week’s topics
#1 CPI Inflation. The consensus is higher: 8.8% annual, 1.1% maternal. In my opinion: the higher the income, the bigger the dip.
#2 Earnings. This week is mostly about finances. It should be ok.
#3 European gas crisis. Risk and puts downward pressure on the euro.
It will be confusing. https://t.co/LCmt2GRcHl
— Alex Kruger (@krugermacro) July 10, 2022
The CPI even drew the attention of mainstream commentators over the weekend with an ominous hint that this week’s numbers could put the cat among the pigeons, as it overruled many leading inflation indicators.
Economist Mohamed El-Erian “Some will be quick to point out that this measure is retrograde as the US CPI inflation rate could be very close to 9% next week.” reacted.
“Yes… but it covers the pain felt by many, especially the less fortunate sections of society; and affect inflation expectations. “
In the meantime, any knee-jerk reaction could definitely scare Bitcoin markets in line with other risk assets, or at the very least, lead to massive volatility, as seen during this period. previous CPI events.
MACD points below the ongoing price
With many Bitcoin price indicators either flashing “down” or even reaching all-time lowsthe place is no less than signals that BTC investment at current prices has a historically unparalleled risk/reward ratio.
The latest indicator to join the herd this week is the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) on the weekly chart.
MACD effectively follows a chart trend that is already playing out. This involves subtracting the 26-period exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-period EMA.
When the resulting value is below zero, Bitcoin tends to be in a bottom scenario, meaning that the recent trip to $17,600 could be the case if historical norms repeat.
A #Bitcoin Price submissions have always marked a bottom when the weekly MACD is below the zero line. pic.twitter.com/5U1Q13Ybju
– Dave the wave (@davthewave) July 10, 2022
Meanwhile commentator Matthew Hyland noted a similar MACD structure is still playing out on the 3-day chart.
“The 3-day MACD is still bullish,” market analyst Kevin Swenson said. he added.
“Despite the pullback, I remain bullish here for the medium term.”
Like Cointelegraph informedBitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) is now at its most oversold levels in history.
Last week, meanwhile, a trader July 15 was called As a key date on which another chart feature will call the bottom, it consists of two separate MAs.
2-month highs for the Crypto Fear and Greed Index
As a modest silver lining, the average cryptocurrency investor is slowly regaining confidence, the latest data shows.
Related: Top 5 cryptocurrencies to watch this week: BTC, UNI, ICP, AAVE, QNT
Building on previous strength, cryptocurrency market sentiment reached its highest level since early May over the weekend and now stands at 22/100.
While still in “extreme fear” territory, Crypto Fear and Greed Index The renaissance is in stark contrast to the events of the past two months, during which it has fallen as low as 8/100 — even lower than some previous bear market bottoms.
The views and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading action involves risk, you should do your own research when making a decision.
