According to the National Hurricane Center, the unrest in the western part of the Caribbean Sea is still poorly organized, but it is still suspected of turning into the Bonnie Tropical Storm today.
NHC hurricane expert Eric Blake said, “If I had taken a casual look at ordinary satellite data, I would have thought the system was already a tropical storm.” “There is a large convection ball near the center, and the banding features that occur in most quadrants of the system. However, microwave data do not show a very low level of structure, only broad curvature and no clear signs of a well-defined center.
National Hurricane Center 8 On Wednesday, meteorologists said heavy rains and tropical storms would begin tonight in the South Caribbean, which the Potential Tropical Cyclone II called. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Hurricane Hunter aircraft confirmed that the system has not yet gained the organization to be classified as a tropical storm and does not have a circulation center.
The system is located about 185 miles southeast of Curacao and, according to an update at 8 a.m., with continuous winds moving at a maximum of 40 miles per hour to the west at 30 miles per hour. Although the system remains disorganized, hurricane experts suspect it may change over the next 12 hours.
“One of the reasons the system hasn’t been able to shut down so far is because it’s too fast,” Blake said. However, the models show that the disorder stabilizes in the evening. Then, the system should continue to strengthen for two days. It could get stronger again by Friday, Blake said.
The Tropical Storm Warning for Trinidad and Tobago is effective from 8 a.m.; Grenada and its dependencies; Venezuelan Islands, Margarita Islands, Coche and Cubaqua; and part of the coasts of Bonaire, Curacao, Aruba, Venezuela and Colombia.
The system has tropical storm winds extending 60 miles from the center of the system. If his name comes up, it will be Tropical Storm Bonnie. The NHC gives him a 90% chance to train for the next five days.
“On the forecast route, the system will pass today near the southern Caribbean and the northern coast of Venezuela, on Thursday near the Colombian peninsula of Guajira and on Friday over the southwestern Caribbean,” the NHC said.
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Meteorologists are also looking at two other riots that could turn into a tropical system.
Overnight and in a troubled area northwest of the Gulf of Mexico, torrential rains and storms intensified. More development is possible, but the system remains unorganized. The NHC gives it a 40% chance of turning into a tropical system in the next two to five days, as it slowly drags west along the Gulf of Mexico and into Texas.
The NHC said, “It could turn into a short-term tropical depression near the coast before moving inward.” “Regardless of the development, heavy rains will be possible in some parts of the Texas coast this weekend.”
Also, tropical waves over the central Atlantic create disorganized showers and storms. The wave is expected to come into contact with another tropical wave and develop this weekend. The NHC gave the wave a 10% chance of becoming depressed over the next two days and 30% over the next five days.
If any of the systems evolve, it will be the second system of the season after Tropical Storm Alex, which rained about a foot in some parts of Florida earlier this month.
The next two names after Bonnie will be Colin and Danielle.
A tropical system can be called a tropical depression without rising to tropical-storm status. The system is not named until it continues to winds of 39 mph and is not called a hurricane until it continues to winds of 74 mph.
The 2022 season covers the period from June 1 to November. After 30 storms in 2020 and 21 storms in 2021, the 30th year for storms is projected to be one year longer than normal.
Jpedersen@orlandosentinel.com
