After the worst first half of recent decades for U.S. stocks, a huge rise last week sparked optimism that the worst sales could be left behind – but not everyone is convinced. Not surprisingly, market observers are reluctant to name the bottom line for brutal sales, but there is one indicator that many strategists say is key: profit changes. Trevor Greetham, multi-asset head of Royal London Asset Management, says the “revenue downturn” is approaching and he expects it to “continue for a long time”. “Earnings are the next challenge … This rally may last a little longer, but don’t think it’s the end of the bear market,” he told CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe on Monday. Morgan Stanley is also closely monitoring earnings changes. European stock strategists, led by Morgan Stanley’s Graham Secker, said on Monday that “stock markets tended to fall 2-3 weeks before the earnings adjustment, but the latter has not yet turned negative.” In a separate note on U.S. stocks, the bank said last week’s jump in the S&P 500 was due to rising prices – an “unusual” phenomenon given growing concerns about earnings. “Falling yields and falling oil prices have lowered the Fed’s discount rate. Whether it rises or falls depends on human interpretation. Last week, the market took a rising position that could continue for several weeks before the low profit reality came. And the bear market. is being restored, “said strategist Michael Wilson. Read more. As fears of recession increase, UBS enters the history books to predict what might happen. While MSCI Europe may be in the later stages of the valuation, the price drop below the peak still seems quite modest compared to previous declines. This is due to earnings estimates that have continued to rise year after year, despite a sharp drop in stock prices, Secker explained. “However, we do not expect this difference to last long, and we see a high chance that the economic news flow will deteriorate over the next few months, which should put downward pressure on the economy.” [gross domestic product] and [earnings per share] Forecasts, “he added. How much can gains go down? “UBS also emphasizes the importance of earnings, although it gets a slightly more optimistic tone.” S&P down to E with 500 P / [around] 6x YTD is the main topic of discussion on how much profit will fall, “bank strategists led by Keith Parker wrote last week. He added that his key scenario for the US is slowing growth, but no recession. “The Bank forecasts revenue for the year. The $ 235.50 and $ 250 shares (EPS) for the S&P 500 for 2022 and 2023, respectively, are ‘achievable.’ Over the next eight weeks, the S&P 500’s planned inspections remain positive. Energy, Utilities and GMOs have the highest sector-level EPS audits. Transport and Banks lead IGs. [investment grade]The bank said its performance was a “useful signal” during a period of market weakness and declining revenues, including the stock market crisis of 2008-2009.
According to experts, how to determine the decline of the bear market
